Da grande moderação a grande recessão: algumas considerações acerca da construção e revisão do novo consenso macroeconômico a partir da crise de 2007-2008

Autores

  • Paulo Saraiva Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ).
  • Luiz Fernando de Paula Instituto de Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IE/UFRJ)
  • André de Melo Modenesi Instituto de Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IE/UFRJ)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5007/2177-5230.2019v34n70p261

Resumo

As últimas quatro décadas de pensamento econômico foram marcadas pela ascensão, hegemonia e revisão do liberalismo econômico compendiado no Novo Consenso Macroeconômico. A consolidação de uma “nova síntese neoclássica” no início dos anos 1990 resultou na implantação do regime de metas de inflação em diversos países, na defesa de uma grande moderação no início dos anos 2000 e na ocorrência da crise financeira internacional a partir de 2007. Contudo, a revisão do Novo Consenso Macroeconômico, ainda em curso e com diversos dissensos, vem relativizando o impacto da crise e propondo ajustes às políticas econômicas apesar de reafirmar os fundamentos teóricos da ortodoxia.

Biografia do Autor

Paulo Saraiva, Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ).

Professor Adjunto da Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ).

Luiz Fernando de Paula, Instituto de Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IE/UFRJ)

Professor do Instituto de Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IE/UFRJ), Professor Voluntário do Instittuto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos (IESP/UERJ), e Pesquisador nivel 1 do CNPQ.

André de Melo Modenesi, Instituto de Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IE/UFRJ)

Professor Associado do Instituto de Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IE/UFRJ) e Pesquisador do CNPq

Referências

BAYOUMI, T, DELL’ARICCIA, G., HABERMEIER, K., MANCINI-GRIFFOLI, T, e VALENCIA, F. Monetary Policy in the New Normal. IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN 14/3, abril de 2014.

BERNANKE, B. The Great Moderation. Remarks before the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, DC, 20 de fevereiro de 2004.

BERNANKE, B. The Crisis and the Policy Response. Stamp Lecture, London School of Economics, London, England, janeiro de 2009.

BERNANKE B. Some reflections on the crisis and the policy response. The Century Foundation Conference on “Rethinking Finance”, New York, 13 de Abril de 2012a.

BERNANKE, B. Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Crisis. The Federal Reserve Bank de Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, 31 de Agosto de 2012b.

BERNANKE, B.; GERTLER, M. Monetary Policy and Asset Volatility. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, v. 84, n.4, p. 17-52, 1999.

BERNANKE, B.; GERTLER, M. Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices? The American Economic Review, v. 91, n. 2, p. 253-257, 2001.

BLANCHARD, O. There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics? The American Economic Review, v. 87, n. 2, p. 244-246, 1997.

BLANCHARD, O.; DELL’ARICCIA, M.; MAURO, P. Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, v. 42, n. 6, p.199-215, 2010.

BLANCHARD, O.; DELL’ARICCIA, M.; MAURO, P. Rethinking Macro Policy II: Getting Granular. IMF Staff Discussion Notes No. 13/03, p. 199-215, 2013.

BLANCHARD, O.; KATZ, L. What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment. Journal of Economic Perspectives, v.11, n.1, p. 51-72, 1997.

BLINDER, A. Quantitative Easing: Entrance and Exit Strategies. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, v. 92, n.6, p. 465-79, 2010.

BORIO, C.; ZHU, H. Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism? BIS Working Papers n. 268, dezembro de 2008.

CLARIDA R.; GALÍ J.; GERTLER, M. The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XXXVII, p. 1661–1707, 1999.

DE GREGÓRIO, J. Los flujos de capital y la interacción entre la política macroprudencial y la política monetaria. Conferência Anual del Banco Central de Chile, La Movilidad de Capitales y la Política Monetaria, Santiago, 17-18 de novembro de 2011.

DE GREGORIO, J. Capital flows and capital account management. In: G. Akerlof, O. Blanchard, D. Romer e J. Stiglitz. What Have We Learned? Macroeconomic Policy after the Crisis. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2014.

EGGERTSSON, G.; WOODFORD, M. The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, v.34, p.139-211, 2003.

ESTRELLA, A.; MISHKIN, F. S. Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty. In TAYLOR, J. (Org.), Monetary Policy Rules. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999.

FRIEDMAN, M. The quantity theory of money – a restatement. In FRIEDMAN, M. (Org.) Studies in the quantity theory of money. Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1956.

FRIEDMAN, M. The Role of Monetary Policy, The American Economic Review, v. LVIII, n. 1, 1968.

GOODFRIEND, M. Monetary Policy in the New Neoclassical Synthesis: a Primer. Economic Quarterly Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, v. 90/3, p.21-45, 2004.

GOODFRIEND, M. The Monetary Policy Debate since October 1979: Lessons for Theory and Practice. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, v. 87, n. 2, pp. 243-62, 2005.

GOODFRIEND, M. How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy. Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 21, n. 4, p. 47-68, 2007.

GOODFRIEND, M.; KING, R. The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy. In BERNANKE, B. ROTEMBERG, J. (Org.). NBER Macroeconomics Annual, junho de 1997.

GOODFRIEND, M. Lessons Learned from a Century of Federal Reserve Last Resort Lending. Testimony before the Subcommittee on Monetary Policy and Trade, U.S. House of Representatives. Washington, 11 de setembro de 2013.

LUCAS, R. Econometric policy evaluation: a critique. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, v. 1, n. 1, p.19-46, 1976.

MCCALLUM, B. Recent developments in monetary policy analysis: the role of theory and evidence. NBER Working Paper n. 7088. Cambridge, MA, abril de 1999.

MCCALLUM, B. What Have We Learned Since October 1979? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Part 2, p.287-291, março/abril 2005.

MEYER. L. Does Money Matter? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, p.1-15, set./out. 2001.

MISHKIN, F. Will Monetary Become More of a Science? NBER Working Paper, Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research, n. 13566, outubro de 2007.

MISHKIN, F. S. Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis. National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper 16755, fevereiro de 2011.

MISHKIN, F. S. Central Banking After the Crisis. Prepared for the 16th Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile, Santiago, Chile, 15-16 de novembro de 2012.

OSTRY, D; GHOSH, R.; CHAMON; M. Two Targets, Two Instruments: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Market Economies. Staff Discussion Notes No. 12/01, fevereiro de 2012.

PAULA, L.F.; SARAIVA, P.; MODENESI, A. “Revisão pós-crise do Novo Consenso Macroeconômico: mais do mesmo?”. Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Economia Política v. 50, p. 38-64, 2018.

REINHART, C. e ROGOFF, K. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2009.

ROGOFF, K. The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target. Quartely Journal of Economics, v.100, p. 1169-89, 1985.

SARAIVA, P., PAULA, L.F.; MODENESI, A. Crise americana e as políticas monetárias não-convencionais. Economia e Sociedade, v. 26, n.1, p.1-44, 2017.

SUBBARAO, D. (2014). Capital account management: toward a new consensus? In: Akerlof, G.; Blanchard, O.; Romer, D.; Stiglitz, J. (Org.). What Have We Learned? Macroeconomic Policy after the Crisis. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2014.

TAYLOR, J. Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice. Carnegie-Rocherter Conference Series on Public Policy 39, p. 195-2014, 1993.

TAYLOR, J. Core of practical macroeconomics. The American Economic Review, v. 87, n. 2, p. 233-235, 1997.

TAYLOR, J. Does the Crisis Experience Call for a New Paradigm in Monetary Policy? CASE Network Studies and Analyses n. 402/2010. Warsaw: CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research, 2010.

TAYLOR, J. Remarks at a Panel on the Monetary Policy Implications of the Global Crisis. International Journal of Central Banking Conference Hosted by the Bank of Japan. Tokyo: Bank of Japan, 16-17 de setembro de 2010.

WOODFORD, M. Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis. American Economic Journal, v. 1, p. 267-279. 2008.

WOODFORD, M. Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-Rate Lower Bound. Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, p. 185-287, 2012a.

WOODFORD, M. Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability. Sveriges Riks Bank Economic Review, 2002-1, p.7-32, 2012b.

YELLEN, J. Unconventional monetary policy and central bank communications, Speech at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business US Monetary Policy Forum, New York, fevereiro de 2011a.

YELLEN, J. The Federal Reserve’s Asset Purchase Program. Speech at the Brimmer Policy Forum, Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting. Denver, Colorado 8 de janeiro de 2011b.

YELLEN, J. Many Targets, Many Instruments: Where Do We Stand? In: Akerlof, G.; Blanchard, O.; Romer, D.; Stiglitz, J. (Org.). What Have We Learned? Macroeconomic Policy after the Crisis. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2014.

Downloads

Publicado

2019-03-25

Edição

v. 34 n. 70 (2019)

Seção

Artigos

Licença

Licença Creative Commons
Este trabalho está licenciado com uma Licença Creative Commons - Atribuição 4.0 Internacional.