Prospecting the universe of waters: the experience of building scenarios for Brazil’s national plan for water resources, 2005-2006

Abstract

Brazil’s National Plan for Water Resources was approved in 2006 by the National Council for Water Resources. This was the first plan of its kind drafted in Brazil. Its most peculiar aspect is the inclusion of a prospective study, a component to be found in only two other similar national plans. This article describes the methodology adopted and the process of constructing the plan’s water resources scenarios. These scenarios were built on the basis of a set of regional and national workshops, involving a total of 235 participants. They identified the variables, the actors and the critical uncertainties related to the country’s water resources. Three scenarios emerged, partly quantified, valid for Brazil in 2020. They were used as the foundation of the plan, as a consequence of the adoption of a robust strategy that included the identification of recurrent bottlenecks, potentials and conflicts in the scenarios. However, it is argued that a more refined and complete quantification would have been required, based on a consistent model. Another shortcoming discussed in the text is the absence of a regional focus that would allow the identification of the impacts of each of the three scenarios in each of the 12 hydrographic regions into which the country was divided.