Mapping of susceptibility to flooding in urban areas: the case of the city of Montes Claros/MG

Abstract

Brazil has registered in the last decades a gradual population increase, with evident increment on its urban population in comparison to its rural one. Parallel to it, the International Disaster Database ofCentre for Research on The Epidemiology of Disasters (EM – DATA/CRED, 2013) permits evaluate that since the beginning of 20^th century, the registers of natural disasters, mainly floods, in the centers in process of urbanization had progressive increase. The municipality of Montes Claros/MG, in that aspect,was identified in study carried out by the University Center of Studies and Research about Disasters of the Federal University of Santa Catarina (CEPED/UFSC, 2011) with high rate of occurrence of floods.In this context, the current study aimed, using techniques from Geographical Information System (GIS) and Statistics, to analyze the prone areas to flooding in the city of Montes Claros, through the generation of susceptibility model to urban flooding.As a result, the model noticed that, although the CEPED/UFSC (2011) identifies Montes Claros with high number of Gradual Floods in the state, less the 8% of the study perimeter is prone to the effects of the described phenomenon, observing that the great part of the study area (70,6%) have medium or medium-low susceptibility to the event. The study so raise the hypothesis the risky to gradual floods presented by mentioned organ to municipality can be associated to population distribution  which possibly is situated near the fluvial channels and, in that sense, susceptible to the effects of gradual floods.