Application of markov chain for the forecast monthly rainfall in Santa Catarina during el niño southern oscillation

Authors

  • Rosandro Boligon Minuzzi UFSC

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5007/2177-5230.2017v32n64p126

Abstract

This study aimed to obtain matrices of transition probability monthly rainfall in Santa Catarina during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Were used monthly rainfall data from September to April for the period 1958 to 2013 from nine stations located in different climatic regions of the State. For matrices of probabilities, monthly rainfalls were divided in the following states: below (-1), inside (0) and above (1) climatology. The framework of the values of monthly rainfall in these states was based on quantile Q0,35 and Q0,65. The main results show that during El Niño there is a more defined pattern of rainfall, resulting in more efficient probabilistic forecasts through transition matrices, compared to La Niña years. Thus, the transition probability matrices can be used as an aid in forecasting monthly rainfall during ENSO events.

Author Biography

Rosandro Boligon Minuzzi, UFSC

Meteorologista formado pela Universidade Federal de Pelotas (2001), Mestre (2003) e Doutor (2006) em Agronomia (Meteorologia Agrícola) pela Universidade Federal de Viçosa. Atua, principalmente, nas seguintes linhas de pesquisa: agrometeorologia, bioclimatologia animal, climatologia estatística, forçantes climáticas e mudanças climáticas. Atualmente é professor (adjunto nível 3) no Departamento da Engenharia Rural, da Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC) e coordenador do Laboratório de Climatologia Agrícola.

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Published

2017-09-18

Issue

Vol. 32 No. 64 (2017)

Section

Artigos

License

Licença Creative Commons
Este trabalho está licenciado com uma Licença Creative Commons - Atribuição 4.0 Internacional.