Análise da relação entre aspectos comportamentais e temporal com a acurácia da previsão do analista
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5007/2175-8069.2023.e83406Palavras-chave:
Previsão do analista, Vieses Comportamentais, Tempo de previsãoResumo
O estudo analisou a relação entre otimismo, ancoragem, excesso de confiança, representatividade, realismo, comunalidade e tempo, com a acurácia na previsão de lucro de analistas. Foram consideradas empresas brasileiras de capital aberto em 2019, aplicando teste de correlação, diferença de média e regressão múltipla. Os resultados indicaram que a acurácia é influenciada negativamente pelo otimismo e positivamente pela ancoragem e comunalidade. Ademais, a incerteza presente na distância entre a previsão emitida e a divulgação do lucro por ação também implica negativamente na acurácia dos analistas. Adicionalmente, constatou-se que o valor justo, lucratividade, emissão de ADRs e setor auto regulamentado, são aspectos relacionados com maior acurácia. Desse modo, a pesquisa contribui com a literatura para reflexão quanto à necessidade de concatenar aspectos comportamentais e temporais aos financeiros, bem como para sinalizar a importância de que os modelos de previsão dos analistas considerem os aspectos comportamentais em suas tecnologias de informação.
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