Spatial dynamic modeling of agricultural expansion in Campos Novos- SC

Abstract

Digital models based on the paradigm of cellular automata have been newly conceived for the simulation of land cover and land use change, such as agricultural expansion, deforestation processes, urban sprawl, amongst others. The aim of this study is to run and evaluate a cellular automata-based model designed for simulating land cover and land use change associated with agricultural expansion in the municipality of Campos Novos, Santa Catarina state, south of Brazil. The simulations were run for the time span from 2003 to 2012, where the yearly simulations from 2002 to 2008 are retrospective and those from 2009 to 2012 prospective ones. The conceived model revealed that there was agricultural expansion during the analyzed period, with the simultaneous suppression of native vegetation, such as woods and high fields. The attained results demonstrate the promising potential of this class of models for the analysis and forecast of land cover and land use change.