USE OF LONG MEMORY MODEL: FORECAST OF EQUIPMENT FOR AGROBUSINESS

Abstract

Limana Poliserve Company manufactures equipment for agribusiness in general derived from sugar cane as copper pot stills for the production of rum and hydrated alcohol as well as micro-distilleries for hydrous ethanol. From this statement, it is necessary to forecast the number of requests for equipment to maintain a satisfactory flow of customer service and decision making necessary for effective management and quality. The allocation of equipment manufactured by the company was held by the ARFIMA models, ie models of long memory commonly called, which will allow the knowledge in the short term, the future values of this variable. The model that best explained the series under study was a model ARFIMA (1;0,3995;0). With the values can be provided for the administration of Limana Poliserve take management measures to improve the flow of customer service and production equipment.