An empirical analysis of the relationship between bank credit and economic growth

Autores/as

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5007/2175-8085.2021.e72868

Resumen

This paper tests the hypothesis that bank credit is necessary for economic growth, depending on the country's level of economic and financial development. It also seeks to verify whether the relationship between financial development and economic growth is monotonic. For this, Granger's causality methodology is used for panel data, with data from 106 countries for the period between 1970 and 2016. It is observed that there was an expansion of world credit above the economic growth observed over the studied period. The main empirical findings indicate that, in general, credit causes economic growth and vice versa, in addition to verifying the non-monotonicity of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, so that, for very low credit / GDP indices, the causality of the credit to GDP is not verified.

Biografía del autor/a

Marcos Roberto Vasconcelos, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Departamento de Economia

Doutor em Teoria Econômica pela Uiversidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)

Professor Associado da Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Departamento de Economia

Vitor Gomes Reginato

Doutor em Economia pela Universidade Estadual de Maringá

Marina Silva da Cunha, Professora titular da Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Departamento de Economia

Doutora em Economia Aplicada pela ESALQ/USP e Pós-doutorado pela UNB

Professora titular da Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Departamento de Economia

Citas

ABRIGO, M. R. M.; LOVE, I. Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata. Stata Journal. v.16, n.3, p. 778–804, 2016

AIKMAN, D.; HALDANE, A. G.; NELSON, B.D. Curbing the credit cycle. Economic Journal, v.125, n. 585, p. 1072-1109, 2014.

ARCAND, J. L.; BERKES, E; PANIZZA, U. Too Much Finance? IMF Working Paper n. 12/161. 2012.

BAGEHOT, Walter. Lombard street. Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin. (1962 Edition). 1873.

BECK, T.; LEVINE, R. Stock markets, banks and growth: Correlation or causality? The World Bank. Policy Research Working Paper Series, n. 2670, 2001.

BECK, T.; LEVINE, R.; LOAYZA, N. Finance and sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics. v. 58. p. 261-300, 2000.

BECK, T.; DEMIRGUC‐KUNT, A.; LAEVEN, L.; LEVINE, R. Finance, Firm Size, and Growth. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, v.40, n. 7, p. 1379-1405, 2008.

BERNANKE, B. Non-monetary effects of financial crisis in propagation of Great Depression. American Economic Review. v. 73. p. 257-276, 1983.

BREITUNG, Jörg. The local power of some unit root tests for panel data. In: Nonstationary panels, panel cointegration, and dynamic panels. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, p. 161-177, 2001.

BREITUNG, J.; DAS, S. Panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence. Statistica Neerlandica, v. 59, p. 414–433, 2005.

CALDERÓN, C; LIU, L. The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth. Central Bank of Chile. Working Paper, n. 184, 2002.

CAVALCANTE, A. T. M.; CROCCO, M.; BRITO, M. L. A. Impactos macroeconômicos na variação regional da oferta de crédito. Análise Econômica, ano 25, n. 47, p. 85-120, 2007.

CECCHETTI, S. G.; KHARROUBI, E. Reassessing the impact of finance on growth. BIS Working Papers, n. 381, jul, 2012.

CECCHETTI, S; MOHANTY, M.; ZAMPOLLI, F. The real effect of debt. BIS Working Papers, n 352, 2011.

CHOI, I. Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance. v.20, p. 249–272, 2001.

DAMASCENO, A. O. Integração financeira internacional e crescimento econômico: uma crítica a abordagem convencional. Economia e Sociedade, v. 16, n. 2, p. 171-98, 2007.

DE GREGORIO, J.; GUIDOTTI, P. E. Financial development and economic growth. World Development, v. 23, n. 3, p. 433-448, 1995.

DEMETRIADES, P.; HUSSEIN, K. Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries. Journal of Development Economics, v. 51, p. 387-411. 1996.

GOLDSMITH, R. W. Financial Structure and Development. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1969.

GRANGER, C. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross spectral methods. Econometrica, v. 37, p. 424–438, 1969.

HADRI, K. Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. Econometrics Journal, n. 3, p. 148–161, 2000.

HANSEN, L. P. Large sample properties of generalized method of moments estimators. Econometrica, p. 1029-1054, 1982.

HARRIS, R. D.F.; TZAVALIS, E. Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed. Journal of Econometrics, v. 91, n. 2, p. 201-226, 1999.

HICKS, John. A theory of economic history. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1969.

HOLTZ-EAKIN, D.; NEWEY, W.; ROSEN, H. S. Estimating Vector Autoregressions with panel data. Econometrica. v. 56, p. 1371-1395. 1988.

HURLIN, C.; VENET, B. Financial Development and Growth: A Re-Examination using a Panel Granger Causality Test. Working Papers N. halshs-00319995_v1, Hyper Article en Ligne, Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société, 2008.

IM, K. S.; PESARAN, M. H.; SHIN, Y. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, v. 115, p. 53–74. 2003.

JORDÀ, Ò.; SCHULARICK, M.; TAYLOR, A.M. Financial crises, credit booms, and external imbalances: 140 years of lessons. IMF Economic Review, v. 59, n.2, p. 340-378, 2010.

KING, R. G.; LEVINE, R. Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, v. 108, n. 3, p. 717-737, 1993.

LEVIN, A.; LIN, C. F.; CHU, C. S. J. Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, v. 108, p. 1–24. 2002.

LEVINE, R. Finance and growth: Theory and evidence. National Bureau of Economic Research – NBER. NBER Working Paper, n. 10766. 2004.

LEVINE, R. Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, v. 35, p. 688-726, 1997.

LEVINE, R.; LOAYZA, N.; BECK, T. Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes. Journal of Monetary Economics, v. 46, p. 31-77. 2000.

LUCAS, R. E. Jr. On the mechanism of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, v. 22., p. 3-42. 1998.

MADSEN, J.; ANG, J. Finance-led growth in the OCDE since the nineteenth century: How does financial development transmit to growth? Review of Economics and Statistics, v. 98, n. 3, p. 552-572, 2016.

MARQUES JR., T. E.; PORTO JR., S. S. Desenvolvimento financeiro e crescimento econômico no Brasil – Uma avaliação econométrica. PPGE/UFRGS. Trabalho para Discussão n. 11. 2004.

MATOS, O. C. Desenvolvimento do sistema financeiro e crescimento econômico no Brasil: Evidência de causalidade. Banco Central do Brasil. Trabalho para Discussão, n. 49. 2002.

MCKINNON, Ronald Ian. Money and Capital in Economic Development. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1973.

MERTON, R. C. A functional perspective of financial intermediation. Financial Management, v. 24, n. 2, p. 23-41, 1995.

MISSIO, F.; JAYME JR., F.; OLIVEIRA, A. M. Desenvolvimento financeiro e crescimento econômico: teoria e evidência empírica para os estados brasileiros (1995-2004). Texto para Discussão CEDEPLAR/UFMG., n. 379, p. 1-34, 2010.

PAULA, T. H. P.; CROCCO, M. Financiamento e diversidade produtiva: um modelo baseado em agentes com flutuações cíclicas. Revista de Economia Contemporânea, v. 17, n. 1, p. 5-38, 2013.

RAJAN, R. G.; ZINGALES, L. Financial dependence and growth. The American Economic Review, v. 88, p. 559-586, 1998.

REGINATO, V. G.; CUNHA, M. S.; VASCONCELOS, M. R. Crédito rural e nível de atividade da agropecuária brasileira: uma análise de causalidade em painel. Revista de Economia e Agronegócio, v. 17, nº 3, p. 442-461, 2019.

ROBINSON, J. The Generalization of the General Theory. In: The Rate of Interest and Other Essays, London: MacMillan, 1952.

ROMER, David. Advanced macroeconomics, 5 ed. Dubuque: McGraw-Hill, 2019.

ROMER, P. Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy. v. 94, p. 1002-1037, 1986.

ROUSSEAU, P.; WACHTEL, P. What is Happening to The Impact of Financial Deepening on Economic Growth? Economic Inquiry, v. 49, p. 276-288, 2011.

SAMARGANDI, N.; FIDRMUC, J.; GHOSHA, S. Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries. World Development, v. 68, p. 66-81, 2015.

SCHULARICK, M.; TAYLOR, A.M. Credit booms gone bust: monetary policy, leverage cycles, and financial crises, 1870–2008. The American Economic Review, v. 102, n.2, p. 1029-1061, 2012.

SCHUMPETER, Joseph Alois. A Teoria do Desenvolvimento Económico: uma investigação sobre lucros, capital, crédito, juro e o ciclo económico. Coleção Os Economistas. São Paulo: Ed. Abril, 1997.

SOLOW, R. “A contribution to the theory of economic growth”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, v. 70, p. 65-74, 1956.

VASCONCELOS, M. R.; STRACHMAN, E.; FUCIDJI, J.R. Liberalização e desregulamentação bancária: motivações, consequências e adaptações. Nova Economia, v.13, n.1, p. 101-140, 2003.

Publicado

2021-06-18

Número

Sección

Artigos