Macroeconomic factors, industrial indexes and bank spread in Brazil

Authors

  • Carlos Alberto Durigan Junior Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
  • André Taue Saito Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)
  • Daniel Reed Bergmann Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
  • Nuno Manoel Martins Dias Fouto Universidade de São Paulo (USP)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5007/2175-8077.2018v20n51p26

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to Identify which macroeconomic factors and industrial  indexes influenced the total Brazilian banking spread between March 2011 and March 2015. This paper considers subclassification of industrial activities in Brazil.  Monthly time series data were used in multivariate linear regression models using Eviews (7.0). Eighteen variables were considered as candidates to be determinants. Variables which positively influenced bank spread are; Default, IPIs (Industrial Production Indexes) for capital goods, intermediate goods, durable consumer goods, semi-durable and non-durable goods, the Selic, GDP, unemployment rate and EMBI +. Variables which influence negatively are; Consumer and general consumer goods IPIs, IPCA, the balance of the loan portfolio and the retail sales index. A p-value of  05% was considered. The main conclusion of this work is that the progress of industry, job creation and consumption can reduce bank spread.

Author Biographies

Carlos Alberto Durigan Junior, Universidade de São Paulo (USP)

Carlos Alberto Durigan Junior é mestre em Administração pela Faculdade de Economia Administração e Contabilidade (FEA) da Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Atua na infraestrutura do mercado financeiro brasileiro. Seus interesses de pesquisas estão relacionados a finanças, economia, estrutura de governança e gestão de riscos no mercado financeiro. 

André Taue Saito, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)

André Taue Saito é doutor em Administração pela Faculdade de Economia Administração e Contabilidade (FEA) da Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Atualmente é professor adjunto de finanças na Escola Paulista de Economia, Política e Negócios (EPPEN) da Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP). Seus interesses de pesquisa estão relacionados ao mercado financeiro, finanças e crédito.

Daniel Reed Bergmann, Universidade de São Paulo (USP)

Daniel Reed Bergmann é doutor em Administração pela Faculdade de Economia Administração e Contabilidade (FEA) da Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Atualmente é professor-doutor do Departamento de Administração da Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade (FEA) da Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Seus interesses de pesquisa são: Finanças empíricas, apreçamento de ativos, custo de capital e econometria financeira.

Nuno Manoel Martins Dias Fouto, Universidade de São Paulo (USP)

Nuno Manoel Martins Dias Fouto é doutor em Administração pela Faculdade de Economia Administração e Contabilidade (FEA) da Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Atualmente é professor-doutor do Departamento de Administração da Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade (FEA) da Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Seus interesses de pesquisa são: Mercados, consumidor, atividades econômicas e gestão de valor. 

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Published

2018-08-30

How to Cite

Durigan Junior, C. A., Taue Saito, A., Reed Bergmann, D., & Martins Dias Fouto, N. M. (2018). Macroeconomic factors, industrial indexes and bank spread in Brazil. Revista De Ciências Da Administração, 20(51), 26–41. https://doi.org/10.5007/2175-8077.2018v20n51p26

Issue

V.20 N.51 Agosto de 2018

Section

Articles

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