Evolution of the Lula government’s image and electoral behavior in 2006

Abstract

This text is meant to contribute to the study of Brazilian political behavior during the Lula government. We work with data on the social representation of politics that emerge from “opinion polls”, relating them to conjunctural facts. We identify five moments: during the first year, the government received an apparently positive evaluation that became negative in early 2004, and then improved during the second semester. It suffered from new negative impacts resulting from the “mensalão” crisis involving accusations of government corruption and then improved again in early 2006, remaining positive until the second round of elections, a moment which inaugurates the highest positive evaluations yet. In our hypothesis, several material and symbolic factors work to influence this oscilating yet relatively positive evaluation, which nonetheless was limited and largely indicative of passive support. Furthermore, it reflects political behavior which combines voting that is primarily “value-based” with a pragmatic rationality involving low levels of emotional motivation. Keywords: Lula government; 2006 elections; political and electoral behavior; opinion polls; Workers Party.