Analysis of the performance of the return on common shares of companies in the agribusiness sector in adverse economic scenarios
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5007/2175-8077.2021.e79157Abstract
Brazilian agribusiness has a history of continuous generation of trade surpluses, even in adverse economic scenarios. To assess whether reference companies in the sector also showed favorable results in recessionary scenarios, without the occurrence of abnormal returns, it was verified whether, within a set of factors selected to explain the return of BrasilAgro and SLC Agrícola common shares, they would be validated statistically, variables that, in part, would capture the performance of the Brazilian economic scenario: GDP and EMBI Brasil. Data panel methodologies and event studies were used. The period analyzed comprises 2015 to 2020, characterized by economic crises and the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. There was a contrary relationship between the return of common shares and GDP and EMBI, showing that the performance of companies in the sector tends not to be significantly affected, given the non-cyclical nature and high turnover of part of the products sold.
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