Tucanos in the government of São Paulo: the weight of municipal socioeconomic indicators in the vote for Geraldo Alckmin in the 2002, 2010 and 2014 elections

Abstract

The electoral success of PSDB and its candidates for the governorship of the state of São Paulo goes back a long way.This study aims to contribute to the discussion regarding that party’s maintenance of political power in that state.From the formulation of three generalized linear logistic models (GLM) – one for each election –, we assessed the relevance of indicators such as years of education and Gini coefficient to the variation in data relating to vote proportionobtainedmunicipally by thePSDB candidate.The researchwas used the 2002,2010 and 2014 elections, which have in common theGeraldo Alckmin´s victory. We have concluded that even though statistical models of each electoral year indicated some socioeconomic indicators – such HDI, aging index, and Gini coefficient – as significant to Alckmin’s votes, they clarify very little about the total variation in vote proportion. That demonstrated that other contextual factors, unrelated to socioeconomic structure, do have an impact on Alckmin’s electoral success in São Paulo.